Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1870
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
WN 1870 · FLL → MDW
departs 6:20 PM ET · arrives 8:25 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 5:00 AM ET · 37h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 47%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 39%
Sat 10/3 31%
Mon 10/5 30%
Tue 10/6 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
56%
chance · ±5 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
56%
Leave 15+ late
48%
Arrive 1h+ late
17%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
56%
Yes 56%
No 44%
Leave FLL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
42%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
23%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
11%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at MDW that day
↑
0.8 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at FLL that day
↑
6pm departures from FLL are often late
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MDW usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
FLL (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.84 in
MDW (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.89 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.