WN 188 · LAS → PHX

departs 2:40 PM PT · arrives 3:58 PM MT

Forecast issued Thu 9:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

38% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from LAS are often late

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 188 · LAS → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?