WN 1893 · LAX → ELP

departs 12:11 PM PT · arrives 3:17 PM MT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ELP?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 12pm departures from LAX are often late

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↓ Cloud base down to 1,000 ft forecast at LAX that day

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

ELP (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1893 · LAX → ELP

Odds over time

How late will it get to ELP?