WN 1974 · BWI → LAX

departs 6:16 AM ET · arrives 8:40 AM PT

Forecast issued Thu 12:00 AM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↑ BWI is prone to delays

↑ LAX is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI

Weather at each end

BWI (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

LAX (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1974 · BWI → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?