WN 2003 · MDW → PHX

departs 11:21 AM CT · arrives 1:02 PM MT

Forecast issued Wed 4:00 PM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at MDW that day

↑ 11am departures from MDW are often late

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MDW (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.80 in

PHX (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2003 · MDW → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?