Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2051
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 2051 · HOU → MSY
departs 10:45 AM CT · arrives 12:00 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 15%
Sun 10/4 36%
Mon 10/5 15%
Fri 10/9 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±0 pts
+9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at MSY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to MSY?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at HOU
↑
HOU is prone to delays
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into MSY at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 1.75 mi Precip 0.73 in
MSY (destination)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 3,400 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.12 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.