Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 206
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 206 · ATL → HOU
departs 4:05 PM ET · arrives 5:15 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 35%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 23%
Mon 10/5 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±3 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at HOU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HOU?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at HOU
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
4pm departures from ATL are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
HOU (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 4,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.14 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.