Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2091
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 2091 · TUL → MCO
departs 5:20 PM CT · arrives 9:10 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Mon 10/5 33%
Fri 10/9 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±0 pts
−26 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed −26 pts in 24h
−26 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave TUL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed −14 pts in 24h
−14 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −16 pts in 24h
−16 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 900 ft, 1.0 in of rain forecast at TUL that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
TUL (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.64 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 5,500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.