WN 2111 · HOU → PHX

departs 3:06 PM CT · arrives 3:56 PM MT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±1 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 27 kt, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 1.8 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at HOU that day

↑ 3pm departures from HOU are often late

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

HOU (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.73 in

PHX (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2111 · HOU → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?