Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2116
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
WN 2116 · AUS → MCO
departs 7:45 AM CT · arrives 11:25 AM ET
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 23h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 17%
Mon 10/5 7%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±4 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 800 ft, 1.6 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at AUS that day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
↑
This flight has been late 24% of the time recently
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 5.66667 mi Precip 1.56 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.14 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.