Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2151
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 2151 · ITO → HNL
departs 3:30 PM HT · arrives 4:30 PM HT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 5%
Mon 10/5 6%
Fri 10/9 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave ITO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at HNL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HNL?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Visibility down to 2 mi, 1.1 in of rain forecast at HNL that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Other factors
↓
This flight has been late 14% of the time recently
↓
ITO usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ITO (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.02 in
HNL (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.61 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.