Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2169
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 2169 · KOA → HNL
departs 3:35 PM HT · arrives 4:30 PM HT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 6%
Mon 10/5 9%
Fri 10/9 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave KOA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at HNL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HNL?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Visibility down to 2 mi, 1.1 in of rain forecast at HNL that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Other factors
↓
This flight has been late 9% of the time recently
↓
KOA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
KOA (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 1,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
HNL (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.61 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.