Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2198
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
WN 2198 · LAS → BUR
departs 9:40 AM PT · arrives 10:55 AM PT
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 23h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 8%
Sat 10/3 10%
Mon 10/5 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at BUR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BUR?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
LAS is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Arrivals into BUR at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BUR (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.