WN 2206 · PHX → MDW

departs 4:36 PM MT · arrives 10:05 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 7:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±4 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MDW?

On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 967 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at MDW that day

↑ 4pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MDW (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.72 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2206 · PHX → MDW

Odds over time

How late will it get to MDW?