WN 2221 · JAX → STL

departs 5:46 AM ET · arrives 7:04 AM CT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 16h after departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

2% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to STL?

On time or early
97%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 5am departures from JAX are usually not late

Weather at each end

JAX (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.09 in

STL (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling2,420 ft Visibility4.4 mi Precip0.12 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2221 · JAX → STL

Odds over time

How late will it get to STL?