Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2225
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 2225 · DEN → MEM
departs 7:05 PM MT · arrives 10:30 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Sun 10/4 46%
Mon 10/5 37%
Fri 10/9 36%
Odds over time
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
38%
chance · ±4 pts
−13 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
38%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed −13 pts in 24h
−13 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 44% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at MEM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MEM?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
7pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 47% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MEM (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 3,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.