Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2274
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
WN 2274 · SNA → LAS
departs 2:00 PM PT · arrives 3:20 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 5:00 AM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 23%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 33%
Mon 10/5 23%
Tue 10/6 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±3 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
2pm departures from SNA are often late
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
SNA is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
SNA (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.