Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2286
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 2286 · MCI → LAS
departs 3:30 PM CT · arrives 4:35 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 17%
Sat 10/3 11%
Sun 10/4 16%
Mon 10/5 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±6 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave MCI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.8 in of rain forecast at MCI that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
MCI usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MCI (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.77 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.