Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2316
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
WN 2316 · KOA → SMF
departs 10:00 AM HT · arrives 6:05 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 11:00 AM ET · 5h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 10%
Sat 10/3 7%
Sun 10/4 9%
Mon 10/5 8%
Tue 10/6 6%
Wed 10/7 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.7d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave KOA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into SMF at that hour are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
KOA usually runs smoothly
↓
This flight has been late 11% of the time recently
Weather at each end
KOA (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 4,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SMF (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.