WN 234 · HOU → MDW

departs 12:56 PM CT · arrives 3:33 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?

69% chance · ±0 pts +22 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MDW?

On time or early
26%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
18%
Cancelled
16%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.3 in of rain forecast at MDW that day

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at HOU

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ MDW usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

HOU (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.73 in

MDW (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility1.25 mi Precip1.18 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 234 · HOU → MDW

Odds over time

How late will it get to MDW?