Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2409
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
WN 2409 · LAX → MCO
departs 10:05 PM PT · arrives 6:00 AM ET
Forecast issued Wed 9:00 AM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 23%
Sat 10/3 18%
Sun 10/4 27%
Mon 10/5 18%
Tue 10/6 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±1 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
33%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 31% of the time recently
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.14 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.