WN 2426 · LAS → SMF

departs 5:33 AM PT · arrives 7:13 AM PT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 13h after departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

2% chance · ±1 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SMF?

On time or early
97%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LAS is busy at that time

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 5am departures from LAS are usually not late

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

SMF (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2426 · LAS → SMF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SMF?