WN 2433 · LAS → SNA

departs 6:46 AM PT · arrives 7:58 AM PT

Forecast issued Thu 12:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?

5% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SNA?

On time or early
95%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LAS is busy at that time

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 21% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into SNA at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

SNA (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2433 · LAS → SNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SNA?