WN 2477 · BNA → SJC

departs 12:36 PM CT · arrives 3:14 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SJC?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 37% of the time recently

↑ 12pm departures from BNA are often late

↑ Arrivals into SJC at that hour are often late

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ BNA usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

SJC (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2477 · BNA → SJC

Odds over time

How late will it get to SJC?