WN 2484 · SRQ → MDW

departs 5:11 PM ET · arrives 7:16 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 3:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?

55% chance · ±0 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to MDW?

On time or early
43%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, 1.0 in of rain forecast at MDW that day

↑ 0.4 in of rain forecast at SRQ that day

↑ Arrivals into MDW at that hour are often late

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ MDW usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

SRQ (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

MDW (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.74 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2484 · SRQ → MDW

Odds over time

How late will it get to MDW?