Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2485
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
WN 2485 · SMF → LGB
departs 4:15 PM PT · arrives 5:40 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 3h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 30%
Sun 10/4 26%
Mon 10/5 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGB more than 15 minutes late?
36%
chance · ±0 pts
+12 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
36%
Leave 15+ late
46%
Arrive 1h+ late
19%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed +15 pts in 24h
+15 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Arrive at LGB more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGB?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
4pm departures from SMF are often late
↓
This flight has been late 12% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
LGB (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.