Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 251
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 251 · AUS → ATL
departs 5:30 AM CT · arrives 8:45 AM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 16h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Mon 10/5 6%
Fri 10/9 4%
Odds over time
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±0 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at ATL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ATL?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,033 ft, 2.0 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at AUS that day
↑
AUS is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
5am departures from AUS are usually not late
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 1,600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 1.69 in
ATL (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.