Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2521
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 2521 · PHX → MDW
departs 7:15 PM MT · arrives 12:40 AM CT
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 41%
Wed 9/30 39%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 31%
Sat 10/3 30%
Mon 10/5 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed – in 24h
–
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, 0.9 in of rain forecast at MDW that day
↑
7pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MDW (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.92 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.