Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2526
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 2526 · MAF → HOU
departs 6:05 PM CT · arrives 7:40 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 25%
Mon 10/5 16%
Fri 10/9 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±0 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Now
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave MAF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at HOU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HOU?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into HOU at that hour are often late
↑
Gusts to 27 kt, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.7 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at HOU that day
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MAF
Weather at each end
MAF (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
HOU (destination)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 1.75 mi Precip 0.73 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.