Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2529
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 2529 · AUS → MCO
departs 2:45 PM CT · arrives 6:30 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 18%
Wed 9/30 30%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 23%
Mon 10/5 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
51%
chance · ±0 pts
−9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
51%
Leave 15+ late
45%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, 1.0 in of rain forecast at AUS that day
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
2pm departures from AUS are often late
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 3.66667 mi Precip 1.00 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 4,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.