Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2536
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
WN 2536 · MCI → BWI
departs 5:05 AM CT · arrives 8:30 AM ET
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 20h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 8%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 4%
Sun 10/4 3%
Mon 10/5 4%
Tue 10/6 3%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
4%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
4%
Leave 15+ late
3%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
2.8d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Leave MCI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
95%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.1 in of rain forecast at MCI that day
↑
Other factors
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into BWI at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
MCI (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.15 in
BWI (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.