Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2563
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
WN 2563 · PHX → MCI
departs 6:05 AM MT · arrives 10:35 AM CT
Forecast issued Wed 7:00 AM ET · 26h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 4%
Sat 10/3 3%
Mon 10/5 4%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
6%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
6%
Leave 15+ late
4%
Arrive 1h+ late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
2.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Arrive at MCI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCI?
On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.5 in of rain forecast at MCI that day
↑
Other factors
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
6am departures from PHX are usually not late
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCI (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.51 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.