Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2598
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 2598 · MCO → AUS
departs 4:35 PM ET · arrives 6:25 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 46%
Wed 9/30 33%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 25%
Mon 10/5 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
51%
chance · ±4 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
51%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
20%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
47%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, 0.9 in of rain forecast at AUS that day
↑
4pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
AUS (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.94 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.