Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 259
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 259 · AUS → BNA
departs 4:30 PM CT · arrives 6:40 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 35%
Mon 10/5 20%
Fri 10/9 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
60%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
60%
Leave 15+ late
62%
Arrive 1h+ late
30%
Cancelled
11%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 60% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
60%
Yes 60%
No 40%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 62% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
62%
Yes 62%
No 38%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
35%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
11%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,167 ft, 1.6 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at AUS that day
↑
4pm departures from AUS are often late
↑
Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
AUS usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 1,600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 1.69 in
BNA (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.