Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2604
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
WN 2604 · MCO → BNA
departs 9:35 AM ET · arrives 10:35 AM CT
Forecast issued Thu 1:00 PM ET · 3h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 11%
Sun 10/4 19%
Mon 10/5 7%
Tue 10/6 7%
Wed 10/7 7%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Now
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
↑
This flight has been late 23% of the time recently
↑
MCO is busy at that time
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
BNA (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.