WN 2612 · LIH → OAK

departs 12:16 PM HT · arrives 8:26 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 9:00 AM ET · 9h before departure

Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to OAK?

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, visibility down to 1.46429 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at LIH that day

↑ Arrivals into OAK at that hour are often late

↑ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ LIH usually runs smoothly

↓ This flight has been late 5% of the time recently

Weather at each end

LIH (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2 mi Precip2.09 in

OAK (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2612 · LIH → OAK

Odds over time

How late will it get to OAK?