WN 2628 · LAX → PHX

departs 2:21 PM PT · arrives 3:53 PM MT

Forecast issued Thu 9:00 AM ET · 8h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

36% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from LAX are often late

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2628 · LAX → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?