Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2654
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
WN 2654 · MCO → MDW
departs 7:25 AM ET · arrives 9:15 AM CT
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 31h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 7%
Sat 10/3 6%
Sun 10/4 4%
Mon 10/5 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, 0.9 in of rain forecast at MDW that day
↑
This flight has been late 16% of the time recently
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into MDW at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
MDW (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.94 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.