WN 2657 · MCI → SAN

departs 10:16 AM CT · arrives 11:46 AM PT

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±2 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.7 in of rain forecast at MCI that day

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↓ MCI usually runs smoothly

↓ 10am departures from MCI are usually not late

Weather at each end

MCI (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility1 mi Precip1.84 in

SAN (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2657 · MCI → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?