Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2686
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 2686 · DEN → PHL
departs 7:05 PM MT · arrives 12:45 AM ET
Forecast issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 27%
Wed 9/30 56%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 40%
Sat 10/3 31%
Mon 10/5 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
44%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed – in 24h
–
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
7pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
This flight has been late 39% of the time recently
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.17 in
PHL (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.