Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2696
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 2696 · MCO → SAN
departs 6:50 PM ET · arrives 8:55 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 33%
Fri 10/9 42%
Sat 10/10 22%
Sun 10/11 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
38%
chance · ±1 pts
−20 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
38%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Now
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed −20 pts in 24h
−20 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed −13 pts in 24h
−13 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −14 pts in 24h
−14 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 5,500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.