Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2709
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 2709 · MCO → SMF
departs 1:30 PM ET · arrives 4:00 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 4%
Wed 9/30 4%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 21%
Mon 10/5 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 4,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
SMF (destination)
Gusts 4 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.