WN 2737 · LAS → BUF

departs 5:06 PM PT · arrives 12:36 AM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±4 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to BUF?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from LAS are often late

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ LAS is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ BUF usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

BUF (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceiling1,200 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.28 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2737 · LAS → BUF

Odds over time

How late will it get to BUF?