WN 2743 · MDW → COS

departs 11:51 AM CT · arrives 1:31 PM MT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure

Arrive at COS more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to COS?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.3 in of rain forecast at MDW that day

↑ 11am departures from MDW are often late

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Arrivals into COS at that hour are usually not late

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MDW (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility1.25 mi Precip1.18 in

COS (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2743 · MDW → COS

Odds over time

How late will it get to COS?