WN 2761 · MCO → MSY

departs 9:11 AM ET · arrives 10:04 AM CT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 13h after departure

Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±0 pts −8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MSY?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts26 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

MSY (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceiling3,400 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.12 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2761 · MCO → MSY

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSY?