Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2769
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
WN 2769 · MDW → DEN
departs 4:15 PM CT · arrives 6:00 PM MT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 36%
Sat 10/3 16%
Sun 10/4 22%
Mon 10/5 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
54%
chance · ±0 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
54%
Leave 15+ late
58%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 51% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
54%
Yes 54%
No 46%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 58% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
45%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, 1.0 in of rain forecast at MDW that day
↑
Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late
↑
4pm departures from MDW are often late
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 1.25 mi Precip 1.18 in
DEN (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.