WN 2771 · ORF → MDW

departs 7:01 PM ET · arrives 8:22 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 3:00 AM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±8 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MDW?

On time or early
40%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
23%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.7 in of rain forecast at MDW that day

↑ Arrivals into MDW at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORF

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORF (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MDW (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.76 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2771 · ORF → MDW

Odds over time

How late will it get to MDW?