WN 2792 · MCO → RSW

departs 10:41 AM ET · arrives 11:50 AM ET

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at RSW more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±0 pts +21 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to RSW?

On time or early
42%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
28%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at RSW that day

↑ This flight has been late 37% of the time recently

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts26 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.01 in

RSW (destination) Gusts44 kt Ceiling1,400 ft Visibility0.75 mi Precip0.80 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2792 · MCO → RSW

Odds over time

How late will it get to RSW?