Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2795
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
WN 2795 · MDW → LAS
departs 1:40 PM CT · arrives 3:35 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 39h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 56%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 23%
Sun 10/4 22%
Mon 10/5 20%
Tue 10/6 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±5 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, 0.9 in of rain forecast at MDW that day
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.94 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.