Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2811
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 2811 · DEN → ANC
departs 5:45 PM MT · arrives 9:15 PM AKT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Mon 10/5 30%
Fri 10/9 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at ANC more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±0 pts
−11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Now
Lands
Arrive at ANC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed −11 pts in 24h
−11 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at ANC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ANC?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 50% of the time recently
↑
5pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ANC (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 1,400 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.